中国足球超级联赛致胜关键指标:基于8个赛季的数据分析

Key Performance Indicators Related to Winning in the Chinese Super League of Football: Analysis Based on the Data of Eight Seasons

DOI：10.12064/ssr.20220313

中文关键词:足球中超联赛跑动技术比赛表现分析数据级数推断

英文关键词:soccer Chinese Super League (CSL) running technical match performance analysis magnitude-based inference

基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(19CTY014)

作者	单位
屈铁强	韩山师范学院体育学院,广东潮州 521041
陈彦龙	广东外语外贸大学体育部,广东广州 510006
周长敬	上海体育学院体育教育训练学院,上海 200438
龚炳南	首都体育学院体育教育训练学院,北京 100191
刘鸿优	华南师范大学体育科学学院,广东广州 510006 ；华南师范大学运动科学国家级实验教学示范中心,广东广州 510006

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中文摘要:

采取数据级数推断与广义混合线性模型的统计方法，以2012—2019赛季中国足球超级联赛1 899场比赛的跑动指标和技术指标数值为自变量，以比赛结果为因变量，界定比赛致胜关键指标。结果：(1)各项跑动相关指标的增加对比赛获胜概率只带来微小无意义的影响；(2)在技术指标中，增加2个标准差的射正率可以为球队获胜概率带来31%的增量(99%置信区间：±4.4%)，而增加2个标准差的个人控球时间、个人控球次数、进攻三区个人控球次数、个人控球平均触球次数、传球次数、传球成功率、向前场传球次数、向前场传球成功率和传中次数分别会降低20%(±4.2%)、25.3%(±4.2%)、25.6%(±4.3%)、17.3%(±4.1%)、25.2%(±4.2%)、19%(±4.2%)、25.8%(±4.3%)、19%(±4.2%)和32%(±4.2%)的比赛获胜概率，而增加一张红牌，会给球队获胜概率带来10.6%(±4.3%)的下降。

英文摘要:

Employing the magnitude-based inference and the generalized mixed linear modelling, the key performance indicators related to winning in the 2012-2019 Chinese Football Super League was identified by analyzing the data of 1 899 matches provided by Amisco. The results showed that: (1)There were trivial changes in the winning probability of the game by increasing the values of running-related variables; (2) increasing the shot accuracy by 2 SDs would bring a 31% (±99% confidence interval: ±4.4%) higher probability of winning, while a two-SD increment in individual possession time, individual possession frequency, individual possession frequency in attacking third, pass, pass accuracy, forward pass, forward pass accuracy and cross would reduce the winning probability by 20% (±4.2%), 25.3% (±4.2%), 25.6% (±4.3%), 17.3% (±4.1%), 25.2% (±4.2%), 19% (±4.2%), 25.8% (±4.3%), 19% (±4.2%) and 32% (±4.2%). While an extra red card would decrease the probability of winning by 10.6% (±4.3%).

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