国家高水平体育后备人才基地选材测试指标体系对青少年运动员运动项目定位的应用性探索

The Application of the National High-level Sports Reserve Talent Base Selection Index System to the Positioning of Sports Events for Young Athletes

投稿时间：2023-02-28

DOI：10.12064/ssr.2023022801

中文关键词:运动员选材项目定位选材测试体系判别分析

英文关键词:talent identification sports orientation base test battery discriminant analysis

基金项目:上海市科委“科技创新行动计划”社会发展科技攻关项目（22dz1205100）

作者	单位
潘其乐	上海体育科学研究所（上海市反兴奋剂中心），上海 200030
景晨	上海体育科学研究所（上海市反兴奋剂中心），上海 200030

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中文摘要:

目的：通过构建运动项目定位模型，探索“国家高水平体育后备人才基地”选材测试指标体系对青少年运动员的运动项目定位的效果，进一步获得有助于人才识别的选材特征指标。方法：以近五年（2015—2019年）上海市两所市级体育运动学校的11~18岁青少年运动员（男性663名、女性662名）为研究对象，每两岁为一组，采用标准式判别分析探索基地选材测试体系对运动员所从事运动项目的正确定位能力，步进式判别分析更进一步筛选出在运动项目定位中相对重要的特征指标，皆由留一法进行交叉验证。结果：通过标准判别分析，基地选材测试体系对男性青少年运动员初始案例进行分类的正确率为11~12岁的77.0%，13~14岁的51.2%，15~16岁的60.6%，以及17~18岁的77.4%，经交叉验证后的正确分类率分别降为48.0%、36.5%、40.4%和63.2%；对女性青少年运动员初始案例进行分类的正确率为11~12岁的61.7%、13~14岁的54.0%、15~16岁的61.1%和17~18岁的90.1%，交叉验证后的正确分类率分别降为31.6%、32.5%、37.3%和71.8%。通过步进式判别分析，有助于项目正确定位的特征指标有男运动员11~12岁的肩宽和小腿长A，13~14岁的下肢长B、大腿围、肺活量和背力，15~16岁的下肢长B、小腿围、大腿围和背力，以及17~18岁的身高、胸围和背力；女运动员的项目定位特征指标为11~12岁的小腿长A和肺活量，13~14岁的体重、指距、下肢长B和背力，15~16岁的下肢长B、背力和皮褶厚度和，以及17~18岁的身高、体重、小腿围、皮褶厚度和与背力。结论：基地选材测试指标体系对青少年运动员的运动项目定位表现出中到高的有效性，会受到年龄和项目的影响。下肢长B和背力指标在青春中后期表现出较强的运动项目区分能力，小腿长A指标则在青春前期表现出区分优势，可作为运动项目定位时的特征指标。

英文摘要:

Objective: To explore the effectiveness of the "National High-level Sports Reserve Talent Base" test battery on the sports positioning of young athletes by constructing an event discriminant model, and to obtain characteristic indicators for talent identification furtherly. Methods: Youth athletes (663 males and 662 females) aged 11-18 years from two municipal sports schools in Shanghai in the past five years (2015-2019) were selected, with each group of two years old. Standardized discriminant analysis was applied to explore the ability of the base test battery to correctly orient the athletes in the sports they were engaged in. Stepwise discriminant analysis further screened out the relatively important characteristic indicators in sports orientation, which were validated by the "leave-one-out" method of cross-validation. Results: The base test battery correctly classified 77.0% of the initial cases of male athletes aged 11-12, 51.2% of those aged 13-14, 60.6% of those aged 15-16, and 77.4% of those aged 17-18 by standardized discriminant analysis. The correct rate of classification after cross-validation decreased to 48.0%, 36.5%, 40.4%, and 63.2%, respectively. The correct classification rate for initial cases of female athletes was 61.7% for 11-12-year-olds, 54.0% for 13-14-year-olds, 61.1% for 15-16-year-olds, and 90.1% for 17-18-year-olds, and after cross-validation the rate decreased to 31.6%, 32.5%, 37.3%, and 71.8%, respectively. By stepwise discriminant analysis, the characteristic indicators that contributed to the correct orientation were shoulder width and calf length at age 11-12, Lower limb length B, thigh circumference, lung capacity and back strength at age 13-14, Lower limb length B, calf circumference, thigh circumference and back strength at age 15-16, height, chest circumference and back strength at age 17-18. The characteristic indicators of the female athletes were calf length and lung capacity at 11-12-year-old, weight, span, Lower limb length B, and back strength at 13-14-year-old, Lower limb length B, back strength and the sum of skinfold thickness at 15-16-year-old, height, weight, calf circumference, the sum of skinfold thickness and back strength at 17-18-year-old. Conclusion: The base test battery showed moderate to high validity for sports orientation in youth athletes, which would be influenced by age and events. Lower limb length B and back strength showed strong sports orientation effects in the mid-to-late adolescence, while calf length showed an orientation advantage in early-adolescence, which could be used as characteristic indicators for sports recommendations.

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