都市休闲体育市场需求基点选择——以上海市为例

Selecting the main demand force in urban leisure sports market:taking the city of Shanghai as an example

DOI：

英文关键词:city leisure sports market main demand force

基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(09YJCZH077)，国家自然科学基金项目(70973080),上海师范大学校级人文社科研究项目(A-3138-10-010055)

作者	单位
俞琳	上海师范大学体育学院

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中文摘要:

以文献资料法与数理统计法为主，本文借助ARIMA模型预测认为以上海市为代表的都市居民在休闲体育等文娱消费上，按目前的趋势发展将具有明显的增长和规模，应从战略层面针对性地选择休闲体育市场需求基点，定位中产阶层人群为休闲体育市场开发的需求主力、青少年人群为休闲体育市场开发的需求牵动力、老年人群为休闲体育市场开发的需求支持力，旨在促进提高休闲体育市场投入资源的利用效率，加快休闲体育市场开发，拉动休闲体育经济发展。因此，上海市在三大休闲体育市场需求基点培育上具备良好条件与前景。

英文摘要:

By the methods of document study and quantitative analysis and using ARIMA model, the paper predicts that Shanghai citizens’ cultural consumption, including the consumption of leisure sports, will increase significantly according to the present development tendency. Therefore, We should choose the main demand forces in leisure sports market from the strategic angle. The middle class will be the main demand force in leisure sports market. The young people will be the driving force of the market and the aged people will be the supporting force. Bright future can be seen in maturing those three forces for the leisure sports market. We should improve the utilization of the resources put into the leisure sports market, quicken the development of the market and accelerate the development of leisure sports economy.

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