欧洲足球五大联赛进球的时间序列模型构建及预测

Construction and Prediction of Goal Time Series Model in the Big Five European Football Leagues

投稿时间：2019-06-03

DOI：

英文关键词:the big five European football leagues goal Time Series Analysis ARIMA Model

基金项目:2019年教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目（19YJC890034）

作者	单位	E-mail
全涛	临沂大学体育与健康学院	979162005@qq.com

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中文摘要:

通过文献资料、数理统计、对比分析等研究方法对欧洲足球五大联赛2000-2001赛季至2016-2017赛季的场均进球进行时间序列分析，构建了ARIMA模型及结果预测。研究表明：（1）欧洲五大联赛的进球特征表现出单一赛事不同时期的波动性和不同赛事之间的横向差异性。（2）欧洲五大联赛的模型分别是德甲为ARIMA（0,1,3），法甲为ARIMA（0,1,0），西甲为ARIMA（1,1,3），意甲为ARIMA（0,1,2），英超为ARIMA（1,1,2）。（3）通过模型的构建可用于短期预测，进球序列整体呈波动状态，拟合值和观测值曲线在整个区间整体拟合情况良好。

英文摘要:

On the basis of literature review, mathematical statistics, comparative analysis and other research methods, the time series analysis of the average goals in each game of the big five European football leagues during 2000/2001—2016/2017 was conducted; ARIMA model was created and results were predicted. The research shows that: (1) The goals of the big five European football leagues are characterized by fluctuations of a single game at different periods and the lateral differences between different games. (2) The models of the big five European football leagues are Bundesliga：ARIMA (0,1,3), Ligue 1：ARIMA(0,1,0), La Liga：ARIMA(1,1,3), Serie A：ARIMA(0,1,2), Premier League：ARIMA (1,1,2). (3) The construction of the model can be used for short-term prediction. The goal sequence is in a fluctuation state on the whole, and the value curves of fitting and observation fit well in the whole interval.

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