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| 中国足球协会超级联赛的“先进球效应” |
| The "Scoring First Effect" in the Chinese Football Association Super League |
| Received:June 25, 2024 |
| DOI：10.12064/ssr.2024062502 |
| 中文关键词:获胜率 先进球效应 中超联赛 表现分析 |
| 英文关键词:win rate scoring first effect CSL performance analysis |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目（19CTY014） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探讨中国足球协会超级联赛（以下简称“中超联赛”）的“先进球效应”，以2008—2021赛季中超联赛2 914场有进球的比赛为研究样本，运用卡方检验，对比分析主客场球队、不同实力球队、对阵不同实力对手和不同比赛时段率先进球时的获胜率的差异。研究结果表明：①率先进球球队的获胜率显著高于非率先进球的球队（X2=154.3，P＜0.001）；②球队在主场率先进球时的获胜率高于客场；③第1~4名球队率先进球时获胜率高于78%，第5~16名球队率先进球时的获胜率低于70%；对阵13~16名球队率先进球时的获胜率高于76%，对阵1~12名球队率先进球时的获胜率低于72%；④球队在6个比赛时段中率先进球时的获胜率均高于61%；⑤不同实力球队在主场率先进球时的获胜率高于客场；第5~16名球队在76~90 min时段率先进球时的获胜率均高于1~15 min时段；第5~8名球队在主场76~90 min时段率先进球时的获胜率高于1~15 min、16~30 min；第13~16名球队在客场76~90 min时段率先进球时的获胜率均高于其他时段。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to explore the "scoring first effect" of the Chinese Football Association Super League (hereinafter referred to as the "CSL"), 2914 matches with goals in the Chinese Super League during the 2008-2021 season were taken as research samples. The Chi-square test was used to compare and analyze the difference in win rates between home and away teams, teams with different strengths, opponents with different strengths and different match periods. The results showed that: (1) The team that scored first had a significantly higher winning likelihood than the team that did not score first(X2=154.3, P＜0.001). (2) The home team that scored first had a winning likelihood higher than the away team. (3) The first 1-4 teams had a winning likelihood higher than 78% when they scored the first goal. The 5th to 16th place teams had a winning likelihood lower than 70 percent when they scored first. The winning likelihood against the 13th to 16th place teams with first goals was higher than 76%, and the winning likelihood against the 1st to 12th place teams with first goals was lower than 72%; (4) The win rate of the team with the first goal in the six game periods was higher than 61%; (5) The winning rate of teams with different strengths when scoring first at home was higher than away; Teams ranked 5-16 had a higher winning rate when they scored first in the 76-90 min period than in the 1-15 min period. Teams ranked 5-8 had a higher winning rate when they scored first in the 76-90 min period at home than when they scored first in the 1-15 and 16-30 min period. Teams ranked 13-16 had a higher percentage of wins when they scored first in the 76-90 min period away from home than in other periods. |
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