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| 职业足球运动员比赛跑动能力下降是否影响其技术表现?——基于比赛最艰难情境的分析 |
| Does the Decline in Match Running Ability of Professional Footballers Affect their Technical Performance?--An Analysis Based on the Worst-Case Scenario |
| Received:November 11, 2023 |
| DOI：10.12064/ssr.2023111101 |
| 中文关键词:比赛最艰难情境 职业足球运动员 比赛跑动表现 技术表现 配速策略 |
| 英文关键词:worst-case scenario professional footballers match running performance technical performance pacing strategy |
| 基金项目:广东省体育局科研课题（GDSS2022N020）；福建省社科规划青年项目（FJ2022C019）；广东省社科规划青年项目（GD21YTY05） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 从比赛最艰难情境（WCS）视角切入，探究职业足球运动员比赛跑动能力的下降是否影响其技术表现。通过STATS Pro?誖计算机视频跟踪系统，采集2018年中超联赛275名球员整个赛季的8项比赛跑动表现和21项技术表现数据。以5 min内的高强度跑动距离（v＞5.5 m/s）的峰值时段（Peak-5min）作为比赛最艰难情境，同时考虑比赛场地、球队实力和对手实力3种比赛情境，创建广义混合线性模型，运用数据级数推断界定比赛跑动能力下降对技术表现的影响。结果显示：①WCS识别中，滚动时段Peak-5min的高强度跑动距离比固定时段多11.9%（ES=0.41，99%CI[0.4,0.43]），Post-5min高强度跑动距离下降幅度比固定时段高22.8%（ES=0.58， 99%CI[0.55,0.61]）；②经历高强度跑动峰值时段，运动员比赛跑动能力呈现清晰的下降趋势，表现为跑动距离和跑动频次减少、跑动平均时长和平均速度下降；③随着比赛跑动能力下降，运动员技术表现频次（传球次数、个人控球次数、控球时平均触球次数、运球跑次数、射门次数等）呈现清晰减少（ES=0.26~0.63），结合跑动的技术能力（控球接球时跑动速度和运球跑平均速度）清晰下降（ES=0.36~0.68），但技术表现质量（短传球成功率、向前传球成功率、争抢球成功次数、解围成功次数等）未随之下降。研究表明，职业足球运动员比赛跑动能力暂时下降时，根据潜意识的策略减少技术表现完成次数，保证技术表现质量维持相对稳定的水平。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the worst-case scenario (WCS) perspective, we investigated whether the decrease in match running ability of professional Footballers affected their technical performance. 8 match running performances and 21 technical performance data were collected from 275 players throughout the 2018 CFL season via the STATS Pro?誖 computerized video tracking system. Using the peak period (Peak-5min) of high-intensity running distance (v＞5.5m·s-1) within 5 minutes as worst-case scenario, and considering three game situations of match place, team strength and opponent strength, we created a generalized mixed linear model, and employed magnitude-base inference to define the effect of reduced running ability on technical performance. The results show: (1) In the WCS identification, high-intensity running distance in the rolling period Peak-5min was 11.9% greater than that in the fixed period (ES=0.41, 99%CI[0.4,0.43]), and high-intensity running distance in the Post-5min declined 22.8% compared with that in the fixed period (ES=0.58, 99%CI[0.55,0.61]). (2) After the peak period, there was a clear downward trend in the players' running ability, which was characterized by a reduction in the distance and frequency of running, as well as a decline in the average duration and average running speed. (3) Frequency of the technical executions of the players (passes, individual possessions, touches per possession, runnings with ball, shots, etc.) decreased with the decline of the running ability (ES=0.26~0.63), and the technical ability in running (the running speed when possessing the ball and catching the ball, and the average speed when running with ball) obviously declined (ES = 0.36~0.68), but the quality of the technical executions (short pass accuracy, forward pass accuracy, duels won, Successful clearances, etc.) did not decrease. Studies have shown that when professional footballers' running ability temporarily decreases, the number of technical performance completions is reduced according to subconscious strategies to ensure that the quality of technical performance is maintained at a relatively stable level. |
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